Thursday, December 24, 2009

Are There Optimum Indicator Parameters?

A question asked by both professional and private traders alike

I have been training traders for around 15 years and perhaps the most frequently asked question of all goes something like: "What parameters do you use for your moving averages?"

My sincere and honest response is that I don't use any in my analysis and if I did there is no such thing as an optimum parameter … except in hindsight. However, hindsight is not much worth to us right now.

Is there any such thing as an optimum parameter for any indicator? Not as far as I am aware.

Are there any mystical powers about indicators which make them predict the market? No.

Let's get this straight. All indicators are lagging. This is intrinsically so since they are all calculated from historic prices and there is categorically no argument to say that price develops in a linear fashion that implies indicators can be used to forecast price. I have not found one that predicts the market.

Let's take an RSI. The default in most platforms is 14. This is because it was considered by Welles Wilder who created RSI that there is a common 28 day cycle in the market and thus an indicator length of half the cycle length is a broad yardstick to use.

If you look back at price history and apply several different length RSIs over that history, at times you will find that (for example) an 8 period will work well during sharper oscillating markets while during broad swinging markets a 14 period may work better.

Well, now we have a game plan. We can use an 8 period RSI when the market is choppy and a 14 period when it's not... Now look at your chart and decide what will happen from now. There is always an element of judgment involved and no way of saying for certain which length you should use.

The next argument is to optimize the RSI and choose the most profitable periods. Well, it can be done but having written systems I have never found a parameter that works without substantial a drawdown, certainly not one I would care to trade through. In addition, developing a system is not as straightforward as it seems. What if the optimum period is 14 with a profit of 100 but parameters of 12, 13, 15 and 16 only have profits of 25? (This is not an uncommon occurrence.) Would you feel confident that the optimum period was not just an aberration? (In all probability it is.)

So after all that it seems that there is no safe parameter to use for indicators. Frankly I use the default in most cases - at least for momentum indicators - but the bigger issue here is not the indicator but how you use it.

Again let's take an RSI. Broadly it is commonly used as an overbought/oversold indicator. This is only true during consolidating markets and not trending. You should never use these types of signals from momentum indicators while a trend is in place. Does this mean it is right that, as soon as RSI moves above 70 it is time to sell and below 30 is a time to buy?

No. Definitely not… Here is one of the best bits of advice I can give.

Never take a trade taking a signal from only one form of analysis.

The biggest piece of the puzzle that many (and probably most) traders fail to understand is price. For instance, why take a sell signal because RSI is above 70 but has not moved back below a strategic low. It could be beginning an uptrend and the lows and highs are still moving higher. It could be pausing in a flag formation which is a strong continuation pattern. Remember that many of the best profits come from long positions when momentum indicators are overbought (and short positions when momentum indicators are oversold.)

Always make sure that price is doing something to confirm your trade…

Maybe you see daily RSI above 70. Fine, move down into the hourly charts and see if:

  • There is a price/momentum divergence, or
  • A reversal pattern is developing - then confirmed, or
  • A trend support has been broken.

If any of these occur then your short trade because daily RSI is overbought stands a much greater chance of success.

But what has this got to do with the parameter you choose for the RSI?

Nothing really, but as long as you are using one that is not an extreme and follows the market on the majority of occasions the actual parameter is not important - the combination of the RSI and price should be enough for the majority of trades in this way. Just understand that indicators have their limitations and do not expect them to magically tell you what trade to take. Study price. Understand price. Combine it with indicators and you will have taken a step forward to better profits.

Monday, December 14, 2009

ATR: Reading Volatility

As buyers and sellers pass through the marketplace throughout the course of a trading session, the price charts will simply reflect the behavior of the two opposing forces, and their varying waves of strength and weakness. Like ocean currents, the market will oscillate between relative degrees of volatility and direction. Volatility decreases and trading ranges develop as the market inhales to absorb capital from both buyers and sellers. Eventually price action break's out as the volatility increases, and the market exhales in the direction of least resistance. The ATR (Average True Range) gauges the average range from low to high of each candlestick during its respective period of time. In the first segment of the following chart, we can see a trading range develop as the ATR indicated a decreasing amount of volatility. Eventually as the market became complacent, one side of the market took control; in this case the sellers, as a breakdown occurred to new low prices. Understanding this basic mechanism can help us understand when it is a good time to 'play the range'; as volatility decreases, and 'buy the breakout' as volatility increases.

Friday, December 4, 2009

Change Of Direction And Exhaustion Spikes

We constantly face the question, what ingredients make up a good trade? Entry; the closer that we buy off the bottoms, and sell off the tops, the greater amount of profit we can enjoy, while taking on a smaller amount of risk. Assuming the market establishes a 100-pip trading range between 1.2100 and 1.2200, it clearly makes sense that buying at 1.2110 is a better trade than buying at 1.2150, or 1.2170. However the dilemma we face is as follows: If we continue to buy market bottoms, we run the risk of buying a seemingly never ending downtrend, a practice also known as 'catching a falling knife'. So the $10,000 (demo dollar) question remains how can we buy the bottoms and sell the tops, only when the trend is in the midst of a change in direction? The following chart may help add some light to this predicament.

The following (1-hour) chart shows the GBPUSD breakdown, below it's established up trending channel. We may interpret this as a sign of a change in trend, as the market now shows a greater likelihood to now reverse back to the downside. With this in mind, it clearly makes sense that as we should only look to sell-short as a broken up-trending channel tells us we have a better chance to see lower prices in our near future.

As a general rule of thumb, while buyers try to go long at the lowest possible price, those who wish to sell-short should look to do so at the highest possible level. We can see that after the up-trending trading channel failed to contain the market's price action, a long-candlestick wick popped up above the upper Bollinger Band. In this application, I prefer to set the Bollinger Bands to a 3rd standard deviation as this will help isolate only the extreme market spikes.

To summarize, our goal is to enter the market as it takes its last exhausted attempt at a failing trend. Putting this together, this trade set-up allows us to identify short-term changes in trend, and then enter the market at its relatively extreme price levels. Although this scenario may not 'play-out' as cleanly every single time, it provides us with the criteria to wait for the right trade, and wait for the right price. Best of luck in trading!!!

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Eight Short-term Technical Tools that can Make You Money

There are several valuable technical trading tools that I use on a shorter-term and even an intra-day basis. While I am not a "day trader" and am more of an intermediate-term "position trader," I do have many readers that are day traders or trade shorter timeframes. Thus, I like to provide analysis and clues that do help out those traders who use shorter trading timeframes. And even for the longer-term position traders, shorter-term trading tools can help refine their all-important entry and exit strategies. Below are some of my favorite shorter-term chart signals that I employ.

(You'll note that my favorite shorter-term trading signals are not computer-generated, in keeping with my philosophy that while computers certainly aid traders in many ways, they can never replace the extreme value of the human eyes examining a price chart.)

Collapse in volatility:

A collapse in market price volatility occurs when trading ranges (price bars) narrow substantially. This price pattern is evidenced by price chart bars (the bars can be daily, hourly or in minutes) that suddenly get smaller. The smaller price bars should number at least three in a row, and do not necessarily need to get progressively smaller with each bar. This "collapse in volatility" usually sets off a significantly bigger price move--either up or down. As the smaller price bars accrue on the chart, there is no set number of bars that will set off the bigger price move. It could be three bars, or it could be 10 bars or more before the bigger price action is set off.

Outside days (or bars):

Outside days (or bars) occur when the last price bar is bigger (a bigger trading range) than the previous bar on the chart. If the close (or last trade of the bar's timeframe) is higher than the previous bar's last trade, then that is considered a bullish "outside day" (or bar) up. A bearish "outside day" (or bar) down occurs when the close (or last trade of the bar's timeframe) is lower than the previous bar's close, or last trade.

Inside days:

These occur when the last price bar is "inside" the previous bar--meaning the trading range is smaller and inside the previous bar's trading range. In other words, the last bar's high is lower and the low is higher than the previous bar's trading range. Inside days (or bars) signal that the market is taking a break after a busy period. Inside days can also be an indicator that a collapse in volatility may be setting up and that yet another bigger price move could be on the horizon. After a big price bar and busy trading day, one can expect the next session could be an "inside" rest day.

Key reversals:

These are more important chart signals that occur less frequently than most others I discuss in this feature. Key reversals are one important signal of a potential market top or bottom. A key reversal occurs when a new for-the-move high or low occurs, and then during that same day (or trading bar), the price sharply reverses direction to form an "outside day" up or down. Some analysts will call this, alone, a key reversal. But in my trading rules, a key reversal must be confirmed by follow-through strength or weakness the next trading session (or trading bar). Follow-through greatly helps eliminate false signals and makes a market "prove itself" after a bigger move.

Exhaustion tails:

These occur when either buying or selling apparently is exhausted after prices make a fresh-for­the-move high or low that creates a bigger price bar on the chart. Then prices reverse course to close at the other extreme of the bar's earlier move. Thus, you get the bigger bar that creates a "tail." These tails are then important guideposts because they then become an important resistance or support level on the chart.

Closing Price:

Most traders agree that the most important price of the trading session is not the open, the high or the low--but it is the closing price, or settlement. After an entire session of buyers and sellers doing business, this is the level at which they have agreed (voluntarily or involuntarily) on price. I place more emphasis on a closing price below an important support level or above an important resistance level, or above or below a trend line or chart pattern--as opposed prices just probing above or below those levels during the session only to then pull back.

Daily or weekly high or low closes:

If a market closes near the session high or at the weekly high close, that's a sign of market strength and suggests there will be at least some follow-through strength the next trading session (or price bar). On a close near the daily low or a weekly low close, this suggests market weakness and that follow-through selling could occur the next trading session or price bar.

Gaps:

These chart formations occur when price bars push well above or below the previous bar to form a gap on the chart. (The last bar's low is higher than the previous bar's high for a gap-higher move. The last bar's high is lower than the previous bar's low to form a gap-lower trade.) Gaps can be created on a minute, hourly, daily, weekly or monthly chart. Price gaps indicate a strong market move and many times the gaps will then serve as important support or resistance levels on the chart.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Intersecting Lines: Multiple Signs of Confirmation

Every technical indicator and trading technique allows us the chance to see the market through a specific angle or point of view. These indicators standing alone may not provide accurate buy and sell signals as the market is very much multi-dimensional. However simple chart analysis allows us to isolate those points on the chart where multiple signals agree. At these points, our probabilities of being "right" increase in our favor as the market moves somewhat under the influence of a ‘self-fulfilling prophecy'. As more traders note the same signals, this implies a greater amount of buy and sell orders which inevitably drives the market higher or lower.

With this in mind one of the most widely used and easiest approaches is the use of trend-lines. This can take the form of horizontal lines extending from left to right on the chart, diagonal sloping lines, and Fibonacci retracement lines. We can see the following 1-hour chart shows us how the USDJPY recently traded near the 115.50 large round figure. These large numbers standing alone may represent a degree of either support or resistance, as many traders and institutions tend to use these price levels as a basis to buy and sell. More importantly, this horizontal line also intersected with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from recent highs. Furthermore, we can see our former support line (which often times becomes new resistance) also intersected these two aforementioned lines at nearly the same time. With that said, it is important to note that these lines may not necessarily meet at the same "exact" price level. However within a matter of 20-30-pips, every line met at nearly the same spot on the chart. What's more, as the current trend appears to be to the downside, traders who choose to sell-short have the benefit of trading in the same direction as the overall trend, which typically is in our favor. Best of luck and happy trading!!!

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Pivot Points & Divergence

In the hopes of keeping things as simple as possible, it may be helpful to understand exactly what our intentions are, when maneuvering through one market or another. I like to think of trading as nothing more than simply the process of weighing all the relevant information at hand, finding the next probable direction of the market, and then waiting for the movement where the appropriate trade provides us the highest possible reward for the least amount of relative risk.

The technical indicator used simply gives us another clue to the multi-dimensional relationship between the buyers and sellers over a given period of time. With this in mind, we may opt to use a common technical indicator known as "Pivot Points". These horizontal lines are simply a formula calculating the previous days high, low, and closing price, which are plotted as 3-support and resistance levels typically found on daily, weekly, or monthly charts.

These lines, like any technical indicator simply provide us with a suspect price level at which the market 'may' establish its next support or resistance level. As the market subsequently tests one of these price levels, we should now employ another technical indicator in order to determine if the market has in fact found new support or resistance. For example, the following (1-hour) chart shows the current position of the EURUSD. We can see the market established a double bottom pattern very close to the 1st Weekly Support Pivot Point. As this occurred the MACD began to trend back to the upside indicating a level of divergence in the trend. Traders noting this relationship may have decided to go long or buy the market at this point as the potential reward far exceeded the risk in the trade.

The market subsequently rallied and failed to break above the 1st weekly resistance Pivot Point standing just below the 1.2800 large round figure. As this occurred, the MACD began to travel back to the downside again indicating a level of divergence. Traders once again may choose to anticipate this current range to continue, placing their faith in Pivot Points and MACD Divergence. There is no way to know ahead of time with certainty if the market will in fact act as we believe it may. However through the use of Pivot Points and other technical indicators, our probabilities of success grow in our favor, and will surely help us in the long-run. Best of luck!!!

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Playing MACD Double Top Divergence

Although this concept is quite widely applied, its inherent value is worth repeating. As the market enjoys a trading range between its relative support and resistance levels the market will reverse direction at specific points tempting each of us to find a way to isolate those great entry points, where the potential reward far exceeds the risk, providing us with a favorable risk to reward ratio. Traders hold these situations with very high regard because we are able at times to increase the position size, as our risk can be paired down to a minimum while our possible return could significantly improve our overall account equity. So the question remains, how can we find these spots on the chart on a consistent basis?

As the market reaches and reverses direction at these critical price levels, we may see the emergence of a 'double top or double bottom' pattern. This occurs when the market tests and fails to break above (or below) a specific level at least twice and then subsequently reverses course. Let's take a look at a typical double top pattern. At times the market will break above this double top and continue to higher highs, while other times the market will in fact return to a lower price level from which it came. So far we have found a way basis to make a trade, but we still lack a qualifier or an outside source of information that will keep us far away from the losing trades, and allow us the chance to benefit from the winning trades. Although no single technique is proven accurate all the time, we can improve our success ratio by simply adding a popular technical indicator such as the MACD. The MACD histogram (in this example) measures the relationship between two exponential moving averages; 12 and 26-periods.

How to apply this indicator: As the market tests a certain price level for the second time, we should simply note the position of the MACD histogram. If the histogram registers a lower high while the market attains at least a similar high price, this shows us divergence, or in other words, a disagreement between the indicator and the market's price action it measures. On the other hand, if the MACD histogram reaches new highs as the market tests its high barrier, this convergence may indicate a likelihood of a continuation to the upside. When we spot MACD divergence as the market's trading at its highs, traders may consider selling short just below resistance with protective stops placed above the recent highs of this infamous double top. Once again, by doing so, our risk can be kept to a bare minimum while our potential profits remain significantly higher as the market confirms our reversal suspicions.

Playing MACD Double Top Divergence

Although this concept is quite widely applied, its inherent value is worth repeating. As the market enjoys a trading range between its relative support and resistance levels the market will reverse direction at specific points tempting each of us to find a way to isolate those great entry points, where the potential reward far exceeds the risk, providing us with a favorable risk to reward ratio. Traders hold these situations with very high regard because we are able at times to increase the position size, as our risk can be paired down to a minimum while our possible return could significantly improve our overall account equity. So the question remains, how can we find these spots on the chart on a consistent basis?

As the market reaches and reverses direction at these critical price levels, we may see the emergence of a 'double top or double bottom' pattern. This occurs when the market tests and fails to break above (or below) a specific level at least twice and then subsequently reverses course. Let's take a look at a typical double top pattern. At times the market will break above this double top and continue to higher highs, while other times the market will in fact return to a lower price level from which it came. So far we have found a way basis to make a trade, but we still lack a qualifier or an outside source of information that will keep us far away from the losing trades, and allow us the chance to benefit from the winning trades. Although no single technique is proven accurate all the time, we can improve our success ratio by simply adding a popular technical indicator such as the MACD. The MACD histogram (in this example) measures the relationship between two exponential moving averages; 12 and 26-periods.

How to apply this indicator: As the market tests a certain price level for the second time, we should simply note the position of the MACD histogram. If the histogram registers a lower high while the market attains at least a similar high price, this shows us divergence, or in other words, a disagreement between the indicator and the market's price action it measures. On the other hand, if the MACD histogram reaches new highs as the market tests its high barrier, this convergence may indicate a likelihood of a continuation to the upside. When we spot MACD divergence as the market's trading at its highs, traders may consider selling short just below resistance with protective stops placed above the recent highs of this infamous double top. Once again, by doing so, our risk can be kept to a bare minimum while our potential profits remain significantly higher as the market confirms our reversal suspicions.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Bollinger Band Width And Trading Ranges: When To Trade And When To Fade

The market enjoys two basic trading conditions which tend to repeat on a very regular basis; range bound and trending states. As buyers and sellers establish the extreme overbought and oversold regions, these two opposing forces begin to approach one another, and a trading range develops as relative support and resistance levels begin to approach one another. This phenomenon often times takes the shape of a triangle consolidation pattern. Eventually either the buying or selling side takes control, forcing the opposition into submission as a new trend develops and as the market trades at new highs or lows. Once this trend exhausts itself and the market fails to accomplish new highs or lows, a new range will now develop.

As the market continues to cycle between trending and ranging conditions the Bollinger Bands will continue to expand and contract based on its relative states of volatility. During trending markets the Bollinger Band Width indicator tends to rise as the bands that it measures expand away from each other. On the same note, when a range bound condition ensues the Bollinger Band Width line tends to fall as the bands contract once again towards one another. Although there may not be a notional value to gauge low or high extremes of the Bollinger Band Width line, we can approximate the ultimate high and low points by simply noting recent trading activity on the chart. More importantly we should note the direction of the Width line, as it falls after visiting extreme highs, or rises after touching extreme lows.

Now the question remains, how can we use this in our day to day trading operations? Very simply, we can see the following 2-hour chart, the GBP/USD has formed and subsequently broken out of a number of triangle patterns as the Bollinger Band Width line rises and falls respectively. As a triangle develops, we may choose to go long near support and sell short near resistance, and we may continue to do so profitably until the Width line falls to an extreme low, and then reverses to the upside. On the same note, in a trending market, we may choose to buy new highs, or sell new lows until the Width line touches an extreme high, and then reverses to the downside. Although the notional value of the Width line is important to note, the current direction of this line may be more helpful in showing us the future implied state of volatility and therefore dictate the next trade in our near future. Note how each triangle finally breaks into a new trend just as the Width line reaches an extreme low and reverses to the upside (circled below). This is typically considered the inflection point where a range becomes a trend and our view on the market must change accordingly.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Identifying Budding Trends with Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are among the most commonly found technical indicators these days. Even the most basic of charting applications include them among the available offerings. There are many ways the Bands can be incorporated in to one's market analysis and trading methods (see Bollinger Bands – The Basic Rules for a discussion. This article focuses on how they can be used to find markets in the early stages of significant directional moves.

The process of trend identification using Bollinger Bands starts with evaluating the width of the Bands. This is done using the Band Width Indicator (BWI), which is calculated as follows:

BWI = ( UB – LB ) / MB

Where UB is the Upper Band, LB is the Lower Band, and MB is the Middle Band. Using the common default setting of 20-periods, that means the MB is the 20-period moving average. That default will be the one used in the examples provided herein, though it is by no means necessarily the best option.

The formula above will express the width between the Bands as a percentage of the moving average being used. It could be multiplied through by 100 to provide an integer value (as done on the sample charts). The average (MB) is used rather than current price because it is the central point in the Bands, whereas price could be anywhere within (or even outside) them.

The reason for calculating BWI is that it gives us a normalized reading of how wide the Bands are for comparative purposes. A 100 point band width on the S&P 500, for example, is relatively different when the index is at 900 than when it's at 1500. The chart below provides an example of BWI. It is a daily chart of S&P 500 e-mini futures (continuous contract) with the Bollinger Bands plotted along with price in the upper portion and BWI as the secondary plot below.

As you can see, BWI ranged between a bit below 2% and about 7% over the course of 2005. It is the lower extremes in the indicator readings which are the focus when one uses Bollinger Bands to help identify pending trends.

Continuing with USD/JPY, we can see a fairly recent example of what we are looking for here. Notice in the chart which follows, how narrow the Bollinger Bands became in September. According to BWI, they got to a width of less than 2%. Shortly thereafter, the market took off on a three month rally.

You can see from the following chart that the low BWI reading in September matched one from earlier in the year before a nice upswing in USD/JPY. It was also close to where the indicator got prior to the fall in the market late in 2004.

In the examples above, the bottom end of the BWI range was 1%-2%. For USD/JPY and some other markets such as the S&P, on a daily basis, readings that low are significant. In other markets, however, the scale is different. Look at Crude Oil, for example.

During the 12 months between August 2004 and August 2005, the lower bound was closer to 10%. That is reflective of how much more volatile Crude Oil prices were in that span than was true for other markets.

There are also differences in timeframe. Take a look at the monthly USD/JPY chart below to see how this can be the case.

Notice that BWI bottomed out around 10%, significantly above the 2% area seen on the daily chart. This, of course, is to be expected given the larger price moves which take place in that timeframe. The point, though, is that the process remains the same – look for a market situation in which BWI has reached a relatively low level in historic comparison, regardless of the timeframe in question.

What you are identifying when finding low BWI readings is markets which have been relatively range-bound for a period of time. The tendency is that the longer a market remains narrowly traded (low BWI), the more significant and explosive the move which follows. Some markets make these moves in fairly orderly fashions, as the USD/JPY example earlier. That was a fairly gradual, though quite sustained trend which began from a low BWI reading.

Other situations are more explosive. Take a look at the circled area on the S&P chart below. The BWI reading reached about 2%, which is pretty low for the index on the daily timeframe. The move which followed dropped the market 40-50 points in less than two weeks.

When reviewing BWI, it is generally not enough to just look for low readings, though. In most cases, you need to find a situation where the indicator has gotten to a relative extreme, then has begun turning higher. The reason for this is that BWI can stay low for long periods of time in some cases. The trader trying to exploit a low reading in such a circumstance, would find her/himself attempting to play a flat market, which obviously is a different type of trading than trend-hunting.

It should also be noted at this point that using BWI to indicate the end of a trend could find one leaving a considerable amount of money on the table. The example of the USD/JPY trend from September through December 2005 is a perfect example. Had one exited a long position when BWI rolled over at the start of October, about 600 pips more upside would have been missed. While a declining BWI can sometimes indicate a trend at or near its conclusion, what it is really saying is that price volatility has dropped off. In smooth, persistent trends, this happens quite often as the market just continues to grind in one direction.

Naturally, after one finds a market with a low BWI reading, there remains the task of attempting to ascertain which direction the pending move is going to take. That is an entirely different discussion, though. The Bollinger Bands themselves may not provide much help there. One is left to use other directional indications for that task. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that the initial move which gets BWI rising from a low reading may not be the one which eventually turns in to the big move. Be prepared for the fake-out maneuver. It may not always happen, but it does enough to keep traders on their toes.

There could be dozens and dozens of chart examples provide to point out how low BWI readings can indicate “trend-ready” markets. The suggestion at this point, however, is that you take a look at your favorite market in terms of BWI, and with the tools you use to determine market direction. If you are a trend trader, BWI may help you be a more successful and profitable one.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

How to Identify High Probability Set-ups

In the previous two installments of this ongoing series of FX Trading Basics I outlined the methods I use for determining the trend (read part I and part II here). In today’s installment I want to discuss, how I combine multiple time frame analysis and stochastics in identifying high probability set-ups versus low probability set-ups.

First, some bullet points to outline my thoughts:

  1. Higher time frames, generally, but not always, take precedent over lower time frames.
  2. Stochastics, for me, are a filtering mechanism; not a timing. mechanism.

To review, I use three primary time frames in day-to-day analysis:

  • 60-minute
  • 240-minute
  • Daily chart

I do use a weekly chart to identify key support and resistance levels, rarely as a timing mechanism.

Identifying the trend is simply but one piece to the puzzle, once the trend is correctly identified, you then need to determine whether or not prices will continue to exhibit the trend. There are many times when the trend is easily identified, but is actually on the verge of changing trend direction. For purposes of this article, let’s assume that the time frame that we do the primary analysis (i.e. the time frame we will execute on) is the 60-min chart.

The charts below are the 60 & 240-min of EUR/USD. On each chart, the trend is quite clear. If we then defer to bullet point # 1 above -- Higher time frames, generally, but not always, take precedent over lower time frames -- we would have to resist the temptation to short EUR/USD based on the 60-min chart.

However, this simple analysis, will often lead you to miss trades. In order to make a proper assessment, you need to add one more indicator to your chart in order to conclusively know to not short EUR/USD based on the 60-min chart -- stochastics.

In this case, the stochastics simply confirm the conclusion we drew from looking at the first 2 charts we posted without the stochastics. However, there are many times when this will not be the case.

In the next installment, I will provide several examples of how to properly use stochastics and inflection points in order to properly identify high probability trade entries.

Monday, September 14, 2009

MACD - Moving Average Convergence/Divergence

What is it?

MACD is one of the most commonly used technical indicators for market price and it is relatively simple to apply and understand. It uses 2 sets of moving averages to determine trend characteristics. Momentum is determined by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average and plotting the results, which may be above or below zero, as a line. The standard model uses a 12 day exponential moving average and a 26 day exponential moving average. A positive MACD indicates that the 12 day moving average is trading above the 26 day moving average and conversely a negative MACD indicates that the 12 day moving average is trading below the 26 day moving average.

Bullish Trend:

If MACD is positive and rising, then the 12 day moving average is increasing at a faster rate than the 26 day moving average and the gap between the two is widening. Positive momentum is gathering pace. This trend is considered bullish - a signal that the price is going up.

Bullish Signals:

1) Positive Divergence

Positive divergence occurs when MACD advances upwards at a time when the price is still in a down trend. MACD forms a sequence of higher lows (each low higher than the previous day or period). Positive Divergence is the least common of the 3 bullish signals but it is the most reliable and leads to the greatest price moves.

2) Bullish Moving Average Crossover

This occurs when MACD moves above its 9 day EMA or trigger line. These are the weakest of the 3 bullish signals, are very common and are not very reliable as market signals in their own right. They should never be used in isolation.

3) Bullish Centreline Crossover

This occurs when MAC moves upwards from a negative value and crosses the 0 axis to a positive value. Of the 3 bullish signals, a centreline crossover is the second most common. It is generally regarded as a confirmation signal.

Bearish Trend:

If MACD is negative and decreasing, then the 12 day moving average is falling at a faster rate than the 26 day average and the gap between the two is expanding. Downward momentum is accelerating. This trend is considered bearish - a signal that the price is falling.

Bearish Signals:

1) Negative Divergence

Negative divergence occurs when the price advances or moves sideways and MACD declines. The divergence can either take the form of a lower high or a straight decline. Although this is the least common of the 3 bearish signals, it is the most significant and reliable one.

2) Bearish Moving Average Crossover

This is the most common signal. It occurs when MACD falls below its 9-day EMA signal level. Be warned! These signals are so common that they often produce false signals. The moving average crossover should be read in conjunction with other signals to avoid expensive mistakes.

3) Bearish Centreline Crossover

This occurs when MACD moves below the zero line and into negative territory. It is a clear indication that the momentum has shifted from positive to negative and from a bullish to a bearish trend. This signal can be a confirmation on its own or may be used as a confirmation together with negative divergence or a bearish moving average crossover. Either way, once MACD is negative, it means the trend has become bearish, even if it is short-lived.

MACD Rules of thumb:

  1. Buy/Sell when MACD goes above/below the signal line (9 Day EMA).
  2. Buy/Sell when MACD goes above/below zero.
  3. When MACD crosses the signal line it is an indication of a strong market.
  4. When MACD rises dramatically, i.e. pulls away from the 9 day EMA, it is an indication that the price is over-extended and that the market is either overbought or oversold and will soon return to more realistic levels.

Friday, September 4, 2009

How I Trade Using Multiple Timeframes

Confluence on Three Time Frames Indicates Solid Short Set-Up

One of the topics I will be addressing in an upcoming segment of my ongoing FX Tutorials is combining multiple time frames looking for 'confluence' areas where the technical picture becomes very clear.

The charts below of CHF/JPY outline a very basic, yet effective, example of several resistance an support areas coming together at the same time that may well result in a solid short

Key Points:

- the 60-min chart finds resistance at a low from back on April 30th

- the 240-min chart has fib resistance at roughly the same area, 91.35

- the daily chart has failed at trend-line resistance and is now set to push below bull trend-lines (yellow highlighted area)

- momentum, as defined by the stochastics is bearish, although the 240-min chart exhibits a bit of upside price pressure

Monday, August 24, 2009

Candlesticks Charts Explained

Introduction

Candlestick charts were derived over 200 years ago by the Japanese, who used them for the purpose of doing analysis of the rice markets. The technique evolved over time into what is now the candlestick technique used in Japan and indeed by millions of technical traders around the world. They are visually more attractive than standard bar and line charts and they make for a clearer market reading, once understood.

The major component of a candlestick is the body, i.e. the part that forms the rectangular shape between the open and close points. While traditional Japanese candlesticks use black and white bodies, we use green and red in our representations as we believe the colours better define the market direction and we find them to be visually more striking. A green body means that the close is higher than the open and thus the price has increased over the period, whereas in a red body the closing price is lower than the opening price and the value has decreased over the period.

The extension lines at the top and lower end of the candlestick bodies are called the shadows. The pinnacle point on the upper shadow is the high price of the period, while the lowest point on the lower shadow represents the low price of the period. If there is no shadow on the upper end of the candlestick body, it means that the close price (in the case of a green period) or the open price (in the case of a red period) = the high price. Conversely, if there is no shadow at the lower end of the candlestick body, it means that the open price (in the case of a green period) or the close price (in the case of a red period) = the low price of the trading period.

Note: A trading period can be a week, a day, an hour or even less. What period is most appropriate depends on the market and the nature of the trade. In our experience, trading periods under an hour are not good measures for currency markets.

There are 21 principal Candlestick types, each of which we explain in the next section. We do ask that when using candlestick indicators, you should always use them in combination with some other trend indicators, such as the slow stochastic indicator, RSI and Bollinger bands. Also, be aware that technical analysis on its own is not enough as economic indicators are often the triggers for price action, so fundamentals are also critical to active trading.

For all of the candlesticks we discuss, we are talking about a default trading period. It is entirely up to the trader to determine the length of the period they which to analyse. For stock markets this might be using a daily chart, whereas for currency markets, it could be an 8 hour, 4 hour or 1 hour chart. Using anything less than an hour is not recommended.

Candle Stick Types

1) Long Periods

Long periods show a significant gap (represented by the body) between the open and close prices during the trading period. Usually the shadows at either end of the candlestick body are quite short, indicating that the market movement was primarily one-directional during the same period.

2) Short Periods

Short periods with compressed candlestick bodies indicate that there was very little price movement during the trading period, and what little movement there was had been upwards in the case of a green candlestick body, or downwards in the case of a red candlestick body.

As with a long period candlestick, a short period candlestick has short shadows at either end, indicating very little price fluctuation for example between open price and low price and between close price and high price for a bullish green candlestick.

3) Marubozu

A green Marubozu is a long green body with no shadows at either end and it represents a bullish trend, meaning the open price was the low price and the close price was the high price. It generally comes at the start of a continuation bullish trend, or a bullish reversal pattern. A red Marubozu has a long red body and comes at the start of a continuation bearish trend or indicates a trend reversal.

4) Spinning Tops

Spinning Tops have longer shadows than bodies and whether they are green or red is usually not significant as they imply market indecision and the trend is neither bullish nor bearish. The open and close prices for the period are very close, so in real terms the market has not really shifted, although there may have been a high or low spike (or both) during that period.

5) Doji

Doji sticks have the same open and close price. Obviously in fluctuating currency markets, identical open and close prices may be rare, but if they are close enough then the candlestick can be said to be a Doji.

A Long-Legged Doji has long shadows protruding from it, indicating that there is considerable fluctuation on both sides of the open price, during the course of the trading period. Ultimately the period ends with the close price retracting back to the open price. It is a good signal of market indecision.

A Dragonfly Doji has only one long shadow, on the lower end of the open and close price. This indicates that all price activity during the trading period is on the lower side of the open price, but by the end of the trading period the price has moved back up to the open price. It is a good signal of a bearish trend reversal, i.e. price should now move upwards.

A Gravestone Doji is the opposite of a Dragonfly and again has one long shadow, to the high side of the open and close price. It indicates that during the price period all price activity is at the upper end, but that the price retracts back to open price by the end of the trading period. It is a good signal of a bullish trend reversal, i.e. price should now move downwards.

A 4-Price Doji is a rare event, in that for the prescribed trading period, the open, close, high and low price points are the same. Such an event is rare in currency trading and normally only happens when trading is suspended.

6) Stars and Raindrops

A star occurs when a short body candlestick gaps above a long body candlestick. When the short body appears after and above the long body period, the long body must be an upside green candle. If the short body appears after and below the long body, then the long body must be a downside red candle. Stars and raindrops form part of a more complicated pattern, usually a reversal pattern, but need to be examined in a wider context.

7) Paper Umbrella

A paper umbrella forms when a small body has a long shadow to its underside. This can be a strong reversal indicator. Whether the body is green or red, both umbrellas indicate a bearish trend reversal, as the downward price probe ultimately fails.

8) Hammer

A hammer is a very important indicator of reversal trend and it is named such because the market is attempting to hammer out a market bottom. It is a very good indicator of a bullish trend on the way, whether the body is green or red.

How to recognise a Hammer: The hammer appears during a downtrend only. The body of the hammer has a long shadow on the underside - at least 2-3 times the length of the body and little if any shadow on the upside. The colour of the body does not matter.

9) Hanging Man

A hanging man is so-called because it has the shape of a man in hanging position with his legs dangling underneath. It occurs during an uptrend only and it is a very good indicator of a trend reversal to a bearish market.

How to recognise a Hanging Man: The body is at the upper end of the trend and has little or no shadow to the upside. The body has a shadow at least 2-3 times its length to the underside. The hanging man market period is preceded by uptrend periods. The colour of the body is not important to the trend reversal, other than a red hanging man is more bearish than a green hanging man.

10) Engulfing

Engulfing is when a trading period's body completely engulfs that of the preceding period's body. It is an indicator of a trend reversal. When a green body engulfs that of a red body from the preceding period, this is an indicator of a bullish trend. Likewise, when a red body engulfs the green body of the preceding trading period, then this is an indicator of a bearish trend.

11) Harami

A Harami is the reverse of engulfing. The word means impregnated in Japanese. The new body is dwarfed by the trading body from the previous period. It indicates a turnabout and a trend reversal.

How to recognise a Harami: The body of the current trading period is shorter and fits into the body of the preceding period. The colour of the larger body is the opposite colour to that of the smaller body.

12) Harami Cross

The Harami Cross is a significant indicator of trend reversal, particularly when it occurs after a long body in a downtrend. It is the same as the Harami, except that the second candle is a Doji.

How to Recognise a Harami Cross: The second candle has the same open and close prices, i.e. it is a Doji. The Doji candlestick fits within the longer body of the preceding trading period. The longer body is part of a sustained directional trend.

13) Inverted Hammer

The inverted hammer usually occurs at the bottom of a downtrend and can indicate a trend reversal.

How to recognise an Inverted Hammer: The hammer has a smallish body at the bottom of the price range. It has a very long shadow protruding upwards from the body. It is only evident on a downtrend. The body of the hammer is green and the opposite colour of the larger body preceding it, which is red.

14) Shooting Star

A Shooting Star is a bearish pattern and occurs when a small green body with a long upside shadow follows a long green body, during an uptrend. The star body indicates that the market price opened and rallied upwards, before falling back significantly by the close.

How to recognise a Shooting Star: It happens during an uptrend. The smaller body has a long shadow pointing upwards. The smaller body is preceded by a much longer upward trending body.

15) Piercing Line

The Piercing line is a bullish indicator that indicates a trend reversal. A long green body follows a long red body, but the close price of the green body is above the midpoint of the preceding red body.

How to recognise a Piercing Line: It happens during a sustained downtrend. The opening price of the green body is below the close point of the red body and the green body pierces the mid-point of the preceding trading (red) period.

16) Dark Cloud Cover

The Dark Cloud Cover representation is a bearish pattern and an indicator of trend reversal. It is made up of a long green body followed by a long red body, where the price peaks on the red body, before falling extensively.

How to recognise a Dark Cloud Cover: It occurs in an uptrend only. A long green body is followed by a long red body, where the high price on the red body is above that of the green body, and where the red body pierces the mid-point of the preceding green body.

17) Doji Shooting Star

A Doji Shooting Star is a trend reversal indicator. In a downtrend, a long red body is followed by a doji (a period with the same opening and closing price) - this is a bullish Doji Star. During an uptrend, when a long green body is followed by a Doji, then this is a bearish Doji Star.

How to recognise a Doji Shooting Star: It may occur during an uptrend or a downtrend, but the key criteria are that a long green or long red body is followed by a Doji. The Doji is gapped below or above the long body. In the case of a bullish Doji Star, the Doji open/close price level is below the long red body and in the case of a bearish Doji Star, the open/close price is above the long green body.

18) Morning Star

A Morning Star is a bullish indicator and points to a trend reversal. It consists of 1) a long red body during a downtrend, 2) a star with a short green body that is gapped away from the red body and finally 3) a long green body, which is the confirmation of the trend reversal.

How to recognise a Morning Star: It happens during a downtrend. The shooting star has a short green body which is separated below the red body period. There is a 3rd candle which has a long green body that confirms the trend upwards and has a close above the mid-point of the long red body.

19) Evening Star

An Evening Star consists of 3 candles - 1) a long green candle, 2) a shorter star candle where the price goes higher and finally 3) a long red candle in the final trading period. This pattern is a good indicator of a trend reversal and is a bearish sign. How to recognise an Evening Star: There are 3 candles and the pattern comes during a sustained uptrend. The first candle has a long green body. The second candle is much shorter and gaps above the long green body. The third body is red and its close pierces below the mid-point of the long green body.

20) Morning Doji Star

A morning Doji Star is similar to a Morning Shooting Star and is a reversal indicator, following a downtrend. It consists of a long red body, a Doji (open and close price is the same) which is gapped below the red body and finally a long green body, which follows the Doji and which pierces above the mid-point of the long red body and confirms the trend reversal.

How to Recognise a Morning Doji Star: There are 3 candles - 1) a long red candle, followed by 2) a Doji which is gapped below the red candle period and 3) a long green candle which follows the Doji. The close price of the green candle pierces above the mid-point of the red candle body.

21) Evening Doji Star

An evening Doji Star occurs during an uptrend and is a trend reversal indicator. The pattern consists of 3 candles - 1) a long green candle, 2) a Doji which gaps above the long green candle body and 3) a long red body which follows the Doji and whose close price pierces the mid-point of the long green body. How to recognise an Evening Doji Star: The sequence of the 3 candle periods are a long green body, a Doji and a long red body following the Doji. The pattern occurs during an uptrend only. The open and close price of the middle candle period - the Doji is the same. The Doji is gapped above the green body of the first candle.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Bollinger Bands Explained

What are they? Bollinger Bands are a pair of trading bands representing an upper and lower trading range for a particular market price. A market price or currency pair is expected to trade within this upper and lower limit as each band or line represents the predictable range on either side of the moving average. The lines are plotted at standard deviation levels above and below the moving average. This trading band technique was introduced by John Bollinger in the 1980s.

Why use them? Bollinger Bands can be very useful trading tools, particularly in determining when to enter and exit a market position. For example: entering a market position when the price is midway between the bands with no apparent trend, is not a good idea. Generally when a price touches one band, it switches direction and moves the whole way across to the price level on the opposing band. If a price breaks out of the trading bands, then generally the directional trend prevails and the bands will widen accordingly.

Key features of Bollinger Bands:

  1. A move originating at one band tends to go all the way to the other band.
  2. Sharp moves tend to happen when the bands contract and tighten towards the average, when the price is less volatile. The longer the period of less volatility then the higher the propensity for a breakout of the bands.
  3. When there is a breakout of the band, then the current trend is usually maintained.
  4. A top or a bottom outside the band that is followed by a top or a bottom inside the band indicates a trend reversal.

Configuration and Confirmations

The most commonly used and hence default bands are drawn 2 standard deviations away from a 20 period simple moving average. This is for intermediate-term analysis. However, the number of periods and standard deviations can be varied. John Bollinger himself states "Choose one that provides support to the correction of the first move up off a bottom. If the average is penetrated by the correction, then the average is too short. If, in turn, the correction falls short of the average, then the average is too long. An average that is correctly chosen will provide support far more often than it is broken."

The Chart below is a 4-hour chart depicting the EUR/USD pairing. You can see that while the price generally remains within the band, there are a number of breakouts, particularly when the bands are in a narrow range. Some breakout trends are not sustained and the price action is quickly restored to within the band range. If the breakout does represent a real market shift then a continuation of this trend is generally upheld and the Bollinger bands automatically widen to accommodate this.

Bollinger Bands should be used as a measure together with other measures, most notably the Average Directional Index (ADX), RSI and Stochastic indicators.

The 15 Rules of Bollinger Bands

  1. Bollinger Bands provide a relative definition of high and low.
  2. That relative definition can be used to compare price action and indicator to arrive at rigorous buy and sell decisions.
  3. Appropriate indicators can be derived from momentum, volume, sentiment, open interest, inter-market data, etc.
  4. Volatility and trend have already been deployed in the construction of Bollinger Bands, so their use for confirmation of price action is not recommended.
  5. The indicators used for confirmation should not be directly related to one another. Two indicators from the same category do not increase confirmation. Avoid colinearity.
  6. ollinger Bands can also be used to clarify pure price patterns such as M-type; tops and W-type bottoms, momentum shifts, etc.
  7. rice can, and does, walk up the upper Bollinger Band and down the lower Bollinger Band.
  8. Closes outside the Bollinger Bands can be continuation signals, not reversal signals--as is demonstrated by the use of Bollinger Bands in some very successful volatility-breakout systems.
  9. The default parameters of 20 periods for the moving average and standard deviation calculations, and two standard deviations for the bandwidth are just that, defaults. The actual parameters needed for any given market/task may be different.
  10. The average deployed should not be the best one for crossovers. Rather, it should be descriptive of the intermediate-term trend.
  11. If the average is lengthened the number of standard deviations needs to be increased simultaneously; from 2 at 20 periods, to 2.1 at 50 periods. Likewise, if the average is shortened the number of standard deviations should be reduced; from 2 at 20 periods, to 1.9 at 10 periods.
  12. Bollinger Bands are based upon a simple moving average. This is because a simple moving average is used in the standard deviation calculation and we wish to be logically consistent.
  13. Be careful about making statistical assumptions based on the use of the Standard deviation calculation in the construction of the bands. The sample size in most deployments of Bollinger Bands is too small for statistical significance and the distributions involved are rarely normal.
  14. Indicators can be normalized with %b, eliminating fixed thresholds in the process.
  15. Finally, tags of the bands are just that, tags not signals. A tag of the Upper Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself a sell signal. A tag of the lower Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself a buy signal.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Japanese Candlestick Charts: More Light on Price Action

(Input for this tutorial came from Robert W. Colby, author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, and the Technical Analysis Institute book, Japanese Candlestick Charts)

Candlestick charts provide a more visual presentation of price action than traditional bar charts and have become the chart of choice for many technical analysts.

One candlestick itself can provide important information about the strength or weakness of the market during a given day or other time period, depending where the close is relative to the open. However, a candlestick pattern usually takes several candlesticks to produce chart formations that give the best signals.

The key in candlestick chart analysis is where a given candle or candlestick formation occurs during the market action. Candlesticks may look identical but have an entirely different meaning after an uptrend than they do after a downtrend.

Because they can be used in analysis in much the same way as bar charts, candlestick charts have quickly become a favorite of traders and analysts since being introduced to the West in 1990. Candlestick analysts have also added a little mystique to candlestick charts by giving various patterns clever names and providing more descriptive characteristics for these patterns than is the case in typical bar chart analysis. Both types of charts have their double tops, inside days, gaps and other formations. But candlestick analysis ascribes more meaning to the candlestick "bodies" – price action between the open and close – and to the "shadows" or "tails" – price action that takes place outside of the open-close range for a period.

Because of their popularity in recent years, you should become acquainted with the nuances and terms of candlestick charts if you aren't already.

Candlestick Chart Basics

Japanese candlestick chart pattern recognition has been meticulously refined over hundreds of years of actual experience by Japanese traders, becoming a technical tool of great and growing significance around the world in recent years.

Japanese candlestick charts have caught on rapidly in the West since 1991, when Steve Nison published the first book written in the English language on the subject, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East. He added another book a few years later, Beyond Candlesticks: More Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed. In 1992, Greg Morris thoroughly described and quantitatively tested candlestick patterns and found that many were highly accurate in his book, now titled Candlestick Charting Explained. A number of other books have been written on candlestick charts since then.

According to Morris, Japanese candlestick pattern recognition is based on 160 rules that Munehisa Honma developed from 1750 to 1803. Honma owned a great rice field near Sakata, on the west coast of northern Honshu. He traded rice with such expertise that he grew extremely wealthy. His trading rules became known as Sakata's Method, Sakata's Law and Honma Constitution. Honma emphasized the importance of trading in harmony with the trend. After a price rise, however, price eventually must fall: it takes more force to cause price to rise than to fall. When there is no trend, stand aside in trading range markets.

East Meets West

Candlestick charts have been adopted quickly and easily in the West because they have many similarities to the long-familiar bar charts. All the long-established Western chart pattern recognition methods can be applied directly without modification to candlestick charts. And most computer programs can construct candlestick charts just as easily as bar charts. When plotting by hand, candlestick charts take just a little more time than a bar chart. The colorful and exotic names and Eastern mystique adds to the appeal of candlestick charts.

Nison believes that candlestick charts can offer signals in advance of traditional Western bar charts: Candlestick charts can reveal a trend change in fewer trading sessions, offering timing advantages. Still, “relying on Japanese candlestick charts alone is like leaning your ladder against a cloud,” Nison cautions. The major trend is more important than a few candlesticks. Rather than narrowing his focus to any one tool, Nison wisely emphasizes a “trading triad,” a combination of (1) sound money management discipline, (2) Western technical analysis methods for analyzing trends and patterns and (3) Japanese candlestick chart interpretation.

Three is a recurring number in both Japanese and Western technical interpretation. Contratrend corrections often run for three candlesticks. A narrowing of price range and length of real bodies over three candlesticks signify a loss of momentum and warn of a probable price reversal. Many reversals require three candlesticks or three movements or three failed attempts at trend progress before changing direction.

Like R. N. Elliott, the Japanese independently recognized three impulse waves advancing a wave of larger degree. Also, like Charles Dow and his successors, the Japanese independently recognized three psychological phases of a bull market (skepticism, growing recognition and enthusiasm) and three phases of a bear market (denial, fear and disgust). That traders and technical analysts from opposite sides of the world and working in isolation arrived at similar interpretations might imply that there is something here that is universal and very basic to human behavior.

Constructing Candlestick Charts

Japanese candlestick charts can be drawn for any time period. The most popular time interval to plot is one day, with its obvious and readily available open, close, high and low prices. Short-term traders may choose to plot time intervals measured in minutes. For example, a 30-minute candlestick chart could divide the 6.5 hours of the New York Stock Exchange trading day into 13 intervals, using the first price in each half-hour interval as the open and the last price in each half-hour interval as the close.

Longer-term investors consult weekly candlestick charts, using Monday's open and Friday's close to define a weekly candlestick chart's real body. Monthly candlestick charts are constructed using the first trading day of the month's open and the last trading day of the month's close to define the monthly real body.

Japanese candlestick charts are fully compatible with Western charting techniques because they are nearly the same as Western bar charts, except that the range between the opening and closing prices is highlighted and given special emphasis in candlestick chart interpretation. The high and the low price for a period are represented exactly the same way in both Western bar charts and candlestick charts.

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Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

The real body is the price range between the period's open and close. This is drawn as the widest part of the candlestick chart. The real body is either white or black, signifying buying or selling dominance after the open. (Of course, with some of today's analytical software, you can choose any colors you wish.) The contrasting shading (white or black) helps traders perceive changes in the balance of market forces between buying (white) or selling (black) dominance.

White candlestick: If the close is higher than the open, the real body is white. A white (Yang) candlestick indicates buying dominance after the open.

Black candlestick: If the close is lower than the open, the real body is filled in black. A black (Yin) candlestick indicates selling dominance after the open.

The real body is the most important part of each candlestick. The shade (white or black) and length of the real body reveals whether the bulls or bears are dominant during the main period of trading. A long white real body implies that the bulls are in charge. A long black real body implies that the bears are in charge. Candlesticks with very small real bodies, where the difference between the open and close are relatively tiny compared to normal trading ranges, imply that neither side is currently in charge and, furthermore, that the previous trend may be worn out.

Shadows are the part of the price range that lies outside the real body's open-to-close price range. Shadows are represented as thin lines extending from the real body to the extreme high and low prices for the period, above and below the real body. The peak of the “upper shadow” is the high of the period, while the bottom of the “lower shadow“ is the low of the period.

Marubozu lines lack shadows at one or both extremes: The open and/or the close is the extreme high or low price of the period. Major Yang Marubozu lines have the close equal to the extreme high and indicate extreme buying, which is bullish. Major Yin Marubozu lines have the close equal to the extreme low and indicate extreme selling, which is bearish. When the opening is the low, there is buying dominance during the period, which is bullish. When the opening is the high, there is selling dominance during the period, which is bearish.

The length and position of the shadows are meaningful. A tall upper shadow implies that the market rejected higher prices and is heading lower. A long lower shadow implies that the market rejected lower prices and is heading higher. Very long shadows, both upper and lower, are known as high-wave lines, and these indicate that the market has lost its sense of direction. Multiple high-wave lines indicate trend reversal.

Indecision and Continuation Patterns

Individual candlesticks or candlestick patterns tend to be most useful in helping to spot market reversal tops or bottoms, but they can also provide information as a trend is unfolding. Some candlesticks suggest that bullish and bearish traders may have achieved some kind of balance and the market can't decide which way to go next, or the candlestick pattern may just be setting up to continue the trend that is already in place. “Windows” (gaps to Westerners) could indicate either.

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Indecisive Candlesticks
Perhaps the best-known candlesticks reflecting an indecisive market are a group of individual candlesticks known as doji. A doji has no real body – that is, the open and the close are equal. A doji indicates no net price movement from the first price to the last price recorded during the predefined time interval that formed the candlestick. A doji indicates a lack of progress, a standoff, and an equal balance between the forces of supply and demand. A doji also implies uncertainty about the trend.

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Bullish Doji

Bearish Doji

The bulls and bears are said to be in a "tug of war" that has reached a standstill. The implication is that whatever trend that existed before the doji now has lost momentum and is vulnerable to correction or reversal so it may be either a bullish or bearish candlestick, depending on its location on the chart. Doji are frequently seen as part of a larger pattern.

Long-legged doji has very long upper and lower shadows and indicates a trend reversal.

Rickshaw man is a specific type of long-legged doji where the open and close are in the middle of the price range.

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Dragonfly doji has a long lower shadow and no upper shadow. Following an uptrend, it indicates a bearish trend reversal.

Four price doji has only one price for the period – that is, the open, high, low and close prices are all the same. It indicates an unusually quiet market.

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Gravestone doji has a long upper shadow and no lower shadow – that is, the open and close are at the low of the period. Following an uptrend, the longer the upper shadow, the more bearish the indication. Following a downtrend, the gravestone doji can indicate an upside reversal, but that requires a bullish confirmation in the following period.

Tri-Star is a rare but significant reversal pattern formed by three dojis, the middle one a doji star that gaps away from the previous period's doji. Tri-Star often follows a trend of long duration that has run its course. The three dojis clearly indicate a loss of momentum and an exhaustion of the existing trend.

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Spinning Top
A spinning top is similar to a doji, but it has a real body – that is, the open and close are not the same – and shadows that are longer than its real body. The shade (white or black) of the real body is unimportant. Spinning tops indicate indecision, a standoff of bullish and bearish forces. Several spinning tops together often mark a point of price trend change.

Continuation Patterns

A continuation pattern suggests that the trend in place should stay in place or resume. Flag formations and triangles in Western analysis are pauses or consolidation areas where the market seems to take a little breather to let prices adjust to conditions. Candlestick charts also feature similar patterns.

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Rising Three Methods
The rising three methods pattern occurs in an uptrend and is composed of five candlesticks. The first is a long white candle. The next three periods produce three small real bodies, two of which are black and all of which are contained within the range of the first long white body. The fifth candlestick is another long white candlestick that closes at a new high and confirms resumption of the uptrend.

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Falling Three Methods
The falling three methods pattern occurs in a downtrend and is composed of five candlesticks. The first is a long black candle. The next three periods produce three small real bodies, two of which are white, and all of which are contained within the range of the first long black body. The fifth candlestick is another long black candlestick that closes at a new low and confirms resumption of the downtrend.

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Separating lines bullish

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Separating lines bearish

Separating Lines

Separating lines are a continuation pattern in either an uptrend or downtrend. In an uptrend, a black candlestick is followed by a white candlestick with the same opening price. In a downtrend, a white candlestick is followed by a black candlestick with the same opening price. In either case, the existing trend continues.

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Bullish on Neck Line and in Neck Line
Bullish on neck line and in neck line candlesticks are small one-day contratrend reversals that do not amount to much. In an uptrend, there is a gap up open followed by some continuation up to a new high. A mild reversal by the close produces a black candlestick, but the downward movement is not enough to produce a negative net price change close to close. The uptrend resumes the next session.

Bearish on Neck Line and in Neck Line
Similarly, bearish on neck line and in neck line candlesticks are small one-day contratrend reversals that do not amount to much. In a downtrend, there is a gap down open followed by some continuation down to a new low. A mild reversal by the close produces a white candlestick, but the upward movement is not enough to produce a positive net price change close to close. The downtrend resumes the next session.

Side-by-Side White Lines

Side-by-side white lines occur after a window (gap) within an existing trend, up or down. The second line is an inside day, with a lower high and higher low. This marks consolidation, and the existing trend quickly resumes.

Windows

The window, known as a gap in the West, occurs anytime when the current price range does not overlap the previous period's price range. Windows are usually continuation patterns indicating the existing trend before the window is likely to continue after the window. For the trend to continue, the window should function as a support in an uptrend or as resistance in a downtrend. The window should not be closed, or filled in, on a closing price basis. If the window is closed on a closing price basis, the trend is over.

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Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Windows are very powerful and important indications of demand and supply. Windows following congestion patterns validate the new trend direction, giving the same signal as Western breakaway gaps.

Rising Window
For a rising window, the current period's low is higher than the previous period's high, leaving an upside gap on the chart. A downward reaction or correction against the uptrend is likely to find support within the window – that is, the previous period's high should offer support to any downward reaction against the uptrend.

Falling Window
For a falling window, the current period's high is lower than the previous period's low, leaving a downside gap on the chart. An upward reaction or correction against the downtrend is likely to find resistance within the window – that is, the previous period's low should offer resistance to any upward reaction against the downtrend.

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Tasuki gap bottom

Tasuki Gap
Tasuki gap is the name of a brief, contratrend retracement that may enter the area of a recent window but does not close the window on a closing price basis.

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Tasuki gap top

Meeting Line

Meeting line is defined by a window (gap) in the direction of the prevailing trend on the open, but the close reverses to meet the previous period's close. This should not happen if the trend is to continue, so the trend is likely to reverse.

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Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Three Windows

Three windows often signal the end of a move. The first gap is the breakaway gap that initiates a move. The second gap is a continuation gap or measuring gap that often occurs halfway into a move. The third gap is an exhaustion gap that occurs at the end of a move. Three falling windows are three downside gaps followed by a bullish white candlestick to indicate selling pressure is exhausted. Three rising windows are three upside gaps followed by a bearish black candlestick to indicate buying pressure is exhausted.

Candlestick Reversal Bottoms

In addition to depicting the trading action during a given time period more visually, candlestick charts also provide a more visual picture of price reversal patterns signaling the market may be ready to start a new trend.

One candlestick itself can provide important information about the strength or weakness of the market during a given day or other time period and can suggest a price turn. However, it typically takes several candlesticks to produce chart formations that give the best candlestick signals. Of course, much depends on where a given candle or candlestick formation occurs during the market action, a point that cannot be emphasized too much, as candlesticks may look identical but have a different meaning after an uptrend than they do after a downtrend.

Here are some candle signals at a bottom suggesting the previous downtrend should reverse into a bullish uptrend.

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Hammer or Shaven Head
The hammer (takuri) is a bullish reversal pattern occurring within an established downtrend. It has a small real body (white or black) at or near the high (thus, little or no upper shadow), and it has a long lower shadow, which implies that extreme low prices were rejected by the market. The hammer's small real body implies the previous downtrend is losing momentum. The market can be said to be hammering out a base. Another name applied to a candlestick (white or black) with no upper shadow is shaven head.

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Inverted Hammer or Shaven Bottom
The inverted hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that follows a downtrend. It has a small real body (white or black), long upper shadow (longer than the body) and little or no lower shadow. This pattern is confirmed the next day by a strong upside gap on the open followed by further substantial upside movement to form a large white real body. Another name applied to a candlestick (white or black) with no lower shadow is shaven bottom.

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Bullish Engulfing Pattern
The bullish engulfing pattern is a major bottom reversal signal pinpointing a trend change from bearish to bullish. It is a two-candlestick pattern where a small black body for the previous period is followed by and contained within a large white body for the current period, which engulfs one or more previous candlesticks.

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Piercing Pattern
The piercing pattern (or piercing line) is similar to the engulfing pattern, but the signal candlestick does not engulf the previous candlestick. Following a long black candlestick for the previous period, the price gaps lower on the open for the current period, below the previous low. Later, the price reverses strongly upward to close above the midpoint of the previous period's black real body. The higher the current close relative to the previous period's black real body, the more meaningful is the piercing pattern. The strong price reversal demonstrates that the extreme low price on the open was rejected by the market and implies that the balance of power has shifted to the bulls.

Stars

Stars are reversal patterns that can signal either a top or bottom, depending on the previous price trend. There are three main bullish stars that follow and reverse a downtrend.

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The morning star is a major bottom reversal signal following a decline. It is comprised of three candlesticks: (1) a long black candle; (2) a gap-lower open and a small real body (black or white) that should be entirely below and not touching the real body of the first candlestick, and (3) a large white real body that closes well into the long black body of the first candlestick. The longer this third white real body, the more meaningful it is. Also, a volume surge on this white real body would add power to the reversal signal. If the middle candle is a doji, the pattern is called a morning doji star and is said to be more meaningful than an ordinary morning star.

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If the middle doji's shadows are completely below without touching the shadows of the first and third candlesticks, the pattern is called an abandoned baby bottom and is considered to be even more significant.

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Bullish Harami
The bullish harami, like the star, is a reversal pattern that can occur at either a top or bottom. The bullish version follows a downtrend with a long black real body for the previous period. The current period produces a short white real body, where the current close is relatively near the open, and both close and open are contained completely within the previous period's long black real body. There should be immediate upside follow-through the next period for confirmation.

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Bullish Harami Cross
The bullish harami cross is a major reversal pattern similar to the bullish harami, but in a downtrend, a long black real body is followed by a doji (open and close at the same price giving a cross-like appearance) that is contained within the large black body.

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Three White Soldiers
Three white soldiers reverse an existing downtrend. Look for three relatively large, consecutive white candles that close near or at their highs of the period.

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Belt Hold
The belt hold appears in a downtrend when prices open much lower on a large window (gap) but then close substantially higher, recovering most of the early loss.

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Bullish Counterattack Line
In a downtrending market, a large black candlestick is following by a large white candlestick that opens on a big gap lower and then rallies during the period to close at the same price as the previous close. The bullish white candlestick needs followup action to the upside to confirm the turn to an uptrend.

Three Inside Up

Three inside up is composed of three candlesticks. Following a prevailing downtrend, the first is a large black candle. This is followed by a short white candle that is contained entirely within the real body of the previous big black candle. This suggests some loss of downward price momentum. The third candlestick is a large white candlestick that closes above the highs of the previous two candlesticks, thus confirming a bullish change in trend direction.

Three Outside Up

Three outside up is also composed of three candlesticks following a prevailing downtrend. First look for a black candlestick. This is followed by a larger white candlestick that is an engulfing line – that is, its real body contains the entire first period's price range. This alone suggests a change in downward price momentum. The third candlestick is a large white candle that closes above the highs of the previous two candlesticks, thus confirming a bullish change in trend direction.

Ladder Bottom

Ladder bottom reverses a bearish downtrend. After three consecutive and decisive selling sessions forming three substantial black candles, there may be some slowing of downward momentum in the fourth period. The trend change from bear to bull is confirmed in the fifth period by a relatively large white candlestick that closes on its high and at a new high relative to the most recent past three periods.

Kicking

Kicking is a two-day bear trap. Following a decisive day of selling where prices open on their highs and close on their lows, forming a substantial black candlestick with no shadows, prices totally reverse on the open the very next day, forming a rising window on a large upside opening price gap. Prices close that day on their highs, forming a substantial white candlestick with no shadows. The bears can't help but suffer big losses, and they are likely to be squeezed further in the days ahead, with the market showing no mercy. The bears suffer a severe kicking.

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Tweezer Bottoms
Tweezer bottoms are two or more candlesticks with matching bottoms. The bottoms do not have to be consecutive, and size and color are irrelevant. It is a minor reversal signal that becomes more important when part of a larger pattern.

Three Valleys and Three Rivers

Three valleys bottom and three rivers bottom are longer-term patterns similar to the western world's triple bottom. A buy signal is confirmed when the price rises above the intervening two rally tops, preferably on a strong, large white candlestick or a rising window (breakaway gap) and a rise in trading volume to indicate strong buying.

Inverted Three Buddha Bottom

Inverted three Buddha bottom is a longer-term pattern similar to a western inverted head-and-shoulders bottom. A buy signal is confirmed when the price rises above the intervening two rally tops, preferably on a strong, large white candlestick or a rising window (breakaway gap) and a rise in trading volume to indicate strong buying.

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Fry Pan Bottom
Fry pan bottom is a western rounding bottom, where a buy signal is validated by a rising window (breakaway gap) to indicate strong buying.

Candlestick Reversal Tops

Candlesticks with similar appearances can signal much different outcomes, depending on whether the individual candle or candlestick formation occurs after an extended downtrend or uptrend or in the middle of a trend. Here are some candlestick signals at tops that suggest the previous uptrend may be ready to reverse into a bearish downtrend.

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Hanging Man
The hanging man is a bearish reversal pattern occurring within an established uptrend. It has a small real body (white or black) at or near the high; therefore, it has little or no upper shadow. Although the color of the real body is not critical, black is more bearish than white. Also, it has a long lower shadow, like legs dangling down from the body. The hanging man's small real body implies the previous uptrend is losing momentum. The next period’s action would confirm the bearish implications of the hanging man if there is a downward window (gap) or a long black candlestick.

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Bearish Engulfing Pattern
The bearish engulfing pattern is defined as a current large real body enveloping a smaller white real body formed by price action during the previous period. Supply overwhelms demand. The bulls are immobilized.

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Dark Cloud Cover
The dark cloud cover is a decisive black candlestick following a strong white candlestick with an opening gap up to a new high, a reversal and weak close well into the previous white real body. The weaker the second black candlestick’s close, the more meaningful and bearish it is. For example, a close near the low of the current black candlestick and below the midpoint (or lower) of the previous white real body would be significant. This candlestick indicates bulls led a charge up the mountain to new price highs but could not hold the ground. Now the bears are pushing them back down the mountain. Dark cloud cover is the opposite of the piercing line.

Stars

Stars are reversal patterns. There are four main bearish stars that follow and reverse an uptrend.

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The shooting star has a long upper shadow, a small real body at the lower end of the price range and little or no lower shadow. After an upward move in previous sessions, a strong rally from the open occurs, but the market rejects the high prices and prices collapse back down to close near the open. This means that after early buying enthusiasm on the open, the rally attempt proved unsustainable, an obvious failure of demand. It is more significant if the current open gaps up from the previous real body.

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More significant is the more complex evening star, which comprises three candlesticks: First, a long white candle; second, a gap-higher open and a small real body (black or white), which should be completely above but not touching the real body of the first candle; and third, a black real body that closes well into the white body of the first candlestick. The longer this third black real body, the more meaningful it is. A volume surge on this third black real body would add power to the reversal signal.

If the middle candle is a doji, the pattern is called an evening doji star, which is more significant than an ordinary evening star.

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If the middle doji’s shadows are completely above and do not touch the shadows of the first and third candlesticks, the pattern is called an abandoned baby top and is even more significant.

Tri-Star is a rare but significant reversal pattern formed by three dojis, the middle one a doji star that gaps up and away from the previous period’s candlestick. Tri-star often follows a trend of long duration that has run its course. The three dojis clearly indicate a loss of momentum and an exhaustion of the trend.

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Bearish Harami
The bearish harami is a reversal pattern following an uptrend, formed a long white real body during the previous period and a short black real body during the current period where the current close is relatively near the open, and both close and open are contained completely within the previous period’s long white real body. There should be immediate downside follow-through in the next period for confirmation.

Trading Education Bearish harami cross is a major reversal pattern. In an uptrend, a long white real body is followed by a doji, and that doji is contained within the previous large white body.
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Two Crows
Two crows reverse an existing uptrend. First, there appears a relatively small black candlestick that signals a loss of upside momentum. That small black candlestick is immediately followed by a much more substantial black candlestick, which confirms a bearish change in momentum.

Trading Education Three Black Crows
Three black crows more decisively reverse an existing uptrend. Look for three relatively large, consecutive black candlesticks that close near or at their lows of the period. If the three candlesticks are identical, the pattern is called identical three black crows.
Trading Education Belt Hold
Belt hold, in an uptrend, forms when prices open much higher on a large window (gap) but close substantially lower, giving up most of the early gain.
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Bearish Counterattack Line
In an uptrending market, a large white candlestick is following by a large black candlestick that opens on a big gap higher and then slumps back during the period to close at the same price as the previous close. The bearish black candlestick needs followup action to the downside to confirm the turn to a downtrend.

Three Inside Down

Three inside down is composed of three candles. Following a prevailing uptrend, first look for a large white candlestick. This is followed by a short black candlestick, which is entirely contained within the real body of the previous big white candlestick. This suggests some loss of upward price momentum. The third candlestick is a large black candlestick that closes below the lows of the previous two candlesticks, thus confirming a bearish change in trend direction.

Three Outside Down

Three outside down is also composed of three candlesticks. Following a prevailing uptrend, first look for a white candlestick. This is followed by a larger black candlestick, which is an engulfing line – that is, its real body contains the entire previous period’s price range. This alone suggests a change in upward price momentum. The third candlestick is a large black candlestick that closes below the lows of the previous two candlesticks, thus confirming a bearish change in trend direction.

Kicking

Kicking can also be a two-day bull trap. Following a decisive day of buying where prices open on their lows and close on their highs, thus forming a substantial white candle with no shadows, the very next day prices totally reverse on the open, forming a falling window on a large downside opening price gap. Prices close that day on their lows, forming a substantial black candle with no shadows. The bulls can’t help but suffer big losses, and they are likely to be punished by further price weakness in the days ahead, with the market showing no mercy. The bulls suffer a severe kicking.

Deliberation

Deliberation occurs in an uptrend with a three white candlestick pattern where the first two are substantial but the third is small. This indicates a loss of upward momentum, as if the market is preparing for a trend change from up to down.

Advance Block

Advance block occurs in an uptrend when there are three consecutive white candlesticks with the second and the third both exhibiting a smaller price range and real body than the previous one, thus indicating diminishing upward price momentum.

Ladder Top

Ladder top reverses a bullish uptrend. After three consecutive and decisive buying sessions forming three substantial white candlesticks, there may be a noticeable slowing of upward momentum in the fourth period. The trend change from bull to bear is confirmed in the fifth period by a relatively large black candlestick that closes on its low and at a new low relative to the most recent past three periods.

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Tweezer Tops
Tweezer tops are two or more candlesticks with matching tops. The tops do not have to be consecutive, and size and color are irrelevant. It is a minor reversal signal that becomes more important when part of a larger pattern. A sell signal is confirmed when the price falls below the intervening two minor pullback lows, preferably on a large black candlestick or a falling window (breakaway gap) and a rise in trading volume to indicate serious selling.

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Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Three Buddha Top

Three Buddha top is a longer-term pattern similar to a Western head-and-shoulders top. A sell signal is confirmed when the price falls below the intervening two minor pullback lows, preferably on a large black candlestick or a falling window (breakaway gap) and a rise in trading volume to indicate serious selling.

Three Mountains Top

Three mountains top is a longer-term pattern similar to a Western triple top. A sell signal is confirmed when the price falls below the intervening two minor pullback lows, preferably on a large black candlestick or a falling window (breakaway gap) and a rise in trading volume to indicate serious selling.

Trading Education Dumping Top
Dumping top is a longer-term pattern similar to a Western rounding top, where a sell signal is validated by a falling window (breakaway gap) to indicate overwhelming supply.

Eight New Price Lines

Eight new price lines is a chart pattern consisting of eight new price highs. This implies an overbought market where profit-taking would be appropriate.

Quick Guide to Main Patterns

Candlestick charts give a more visual presentation of price action than traditional bar charts and have become the chart of choice for many technical analysts.

One candle itself can provide important information about the strength or weakness of the market during a given day or other time period, depending where the close is relative to the open. However, a candlestick pattern usually takes several candles to produce chart formations that give the best signals.

The key in candlestick chart analysis is where a given candle or candle formation occurs during the market action. Candlesticks may look identical but have an entirely different meaning after an uptrend than they do after a downtrend.

The diagrams and descriptions below cover only some of the main candlestick patterns, showing the bullish version on the left and bearish version on the right. There are many other candlestick patterns with clever names that chart analysts use.

Bullish Description Bearish
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"Doji stars" - Prices at the open and close of the period are at the same level, indicating indecisiveness about price direction. The signal tends to be more dependable when it appears at a top than at a bottom.

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"Stars" - Stars are reversal patterns and come in several different forms. The pattern consists of three candles, the first usually a large candle at the end of an extended trend followed by a smaller candle that leaves a gap or window and then another large body candle in the direction of the new trend. Large volume would help to confirm the reversal signal.

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"Piercing line" and "dark cloud cover" - These reversal patterns are mirror images of one another and are close relatives of the engulfing patterns except that the current candle’s body does not engulf the previous candle. Instead, the market has a gap opening, then moves sharply in the opposite direction and closes more than halfway through the previous candle’s body.

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"Hammer" and "Hanging Man" - These two reversal patterns look very much alike, but their name and impact on prices depend on whether they occur at the end of a downtrend or an uptrend. The signal candlestick has a small real body and a long lower shadow, suggesting the previous trend is losing momentum. This pattern also requires confirmation by the next candle.

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"Harami" - The harami is a reversal pattern following a trend. Rather than engulfing the previous candle, price action for the current candle is entirely within the range of the previous candle body. This pattern requires immediate follow-through for confirmation.

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"Engulfing patterns" - Prices open below the previous close (bullish) or above the previous close (bearish) and then stage a strong turnaround, producing a candle body that totally engulfs the previous candle and suggesting a change in trend direction.

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"Tweezers" - Tweezers are minor reversal signals that are more important if they are part of a larger pattern. A tweezer bottom has two or more candles with matching bottoms; a tweezer top has two or more candles with matching tops. They do not have to be consecutive candles. They do require follow-through for confirmation.

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