Eight Short-term Technical Tools that can Make You Money

There are several valuable technical trading tools that I use on a shorter-term and even an intra-day basis. While I am not a "day trader" and am more of an intermediate-term "position trader," I do have many readers that are day traders or trade shorter timeframes. Thus, I like to provide analysis and clues that do help out those traders who use shorter trading timeframes. And even for the longer-term position traders, shorter-term trading tools can help refine their all-important entry and exit strategies. Below are some of my favorite shorter-term chart signals that I employ.

(You'll note that my favorite shorter-term trading signals are not computer-generated, in keeping with my philosophy that while computers certainly aid traders in many ways, they can never replace the extreme value of the human eyes examining a price chart.)

Collapse in volatility:

A collapse in market price volatility occurs when trading ranges (price bars) narrow substantially. This price pattern is evidenced by price chart bars (the bars can be daily, hourly or in minutes) that suddenly get smaller. The smaller price bars should number at least three in a row, and do not necessarily need to get progressively smaller with each bar. This "collapse in volatility" usually sets off a significantly bigger price move--either up or down. As the smaller price bars accrue on the chart, there is no set number of bars that will set off the bigger price move. It could be three bars, or it could be 10 bars or more before the bigger price action is set off.

Outside days (or bars):

Outside days (or bars) occur when the last price bar is bigger (a bigger trading range) than the previous bar on the chart. If the close (or last trade of the bar's timeframe) is higher than the previous bar's last trade, then that is considered a bullish "outside day" (or bar) up. A bearish "outside day" (or bar) down occurs when the close (or last trade of the bar's timeframe) is lower than the previous bar's close, or last trade.

Inside days:

These occur when the last price bar is "inside" the previous bar--meaning the trading range is smaller and inside the previous bar's trading range. In other words, the last bar's high is lower and the low is higher than the previous bar's trading range. Inside days (or bars) signal that the market is taking a break after a busy period. Inside days can also be an indicator that a collapse in volatility may be setting up and that yet another bigger price move could be on the horizon. After a big price bar and busy trading day, one can expect the next session could be an "inside" rest day.

Key reversals:

These are more important chart signals that occur less frequently than most others I discuss in this feature. Key reversals are one important signal of a potential market top or bottom. A key reversal occurs when a new for-the-move high or low occurs, and then during that same day (or trading bar), the price sharply reverses direction to form an "outside day" up or down. Some analysts will call this, alone, a key reversal. But in my trading rules, a key reversal must be confirmed by follow-through strength or weakness the next trading session (or trading bar). Follow-through greatly helps eliminate false signals and makes a market "prove itself" after a bigger move.

Exhaustion tails:

These occur when either buying or selling apparently is exhausted after prices make a fresh-for­the-move high or low that creates a bigger price bar on the chart. Then prices reverse course to close at the other extreme of the bar's earlier move. Thus, you get the bigger bar that creates a "tail." These tails are then important guideposts because they then become an important resistance or support level on the chart.

Closing Price:

Most traders agree that the most important price of the trading session is not the open, the high or the low--but it is the closing price, or settlement. After an entire session of buyers and sellers doing business, this is the level at which they have agreed (voluntarily or involuntarily) on price. I place more emphasis on a closing price below an important support level or above an important resistance level, or above or below a trend line or chart pattern--as opposed prices just probing above or below those levels during the session only to then pull back.

Daily or weekly high or low closes:

If a market closes near the session high or at the weekly high close, that's a sign of market strength and suggests there will be at least some follow-through strength the next trading session (or price bar). On a close near the daily low or a weekly low close, this suggests market weakness and that follow-through selling could occur the next trading session or price bar.

Gaps:

These chart formations occur when price bars push well above or below the previous bar to form a gap on the chart. (The last bar's low is higher than the previous bar's high for a gap-higher move. The last bar's high is lower than the previous bar's low to form a gap-lower trade.) Gaps can be created on a minute, hourly, daily, weekly or monthly chart. Price gaps indicate a strong market move and many times the gaps will then serve as important support or resistance levels on the chart.

Intersecting Lines: Multiple Signs of Confirmation

Every technical indicator and trading technique allows us the chance to see the market through a specific angle or point of view. These indicators standing alone may not provide accurate buy and sell signals as the market is very much multi-dimensional. However simple chart analysis allows us to isolate those points on the chart where multiple signals agree. At these points, our probabilities of being "right" increase in our favor as the market moves somewhat under the influence of a ‘self-fulfilling prophecy'. As more traders note the same signals, this implies a greater amount of buy and sell orders which inevitably drives the market higher or lower.

With this in mind one of the most widely used and easiest approaches is the use of trend-lines. This can take the form of horizontal lines extending from left to right on the chart, diagonal sloping lines, and Fibonacci retracement lines. We can see the following 1-hour chart shows us how the USDJPY recently traded near the 115.50 large round figure. These large numbers standing alone may represent a degree of either support or resistance, as many traders and institutions tend to use these price levels as a basis to buy and sell. More importantly, this horizontal line also intersected with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from recent highs. Furthermore, we can see our former support line (which often times becomes new resistance) also intersected these two aforementioned lines at nearly the same time. With that said, it is important to note that these lines may not necessarily meet at the same "exact" price level. However within a matter of 20-30-pips, every line met at nearly the same spot on the chart. What's more, as the current trend appears to be to the downside, traders who choose to sell-short have the benefit of trading in the same direction as the overall trend, which typically is in our favor. Best of luck and happy trading!!!

Pivot Points & Divergence

In the hopes of keeping things as simple as possible, it may be helpful to understand exactly what our intentions are, when maneuvering through one market or another. I like to think of trading as nothing more than simply the process of weighing all the relevant information at hand, finding the next probable direction of the market, and then waiting for the movement where the appropriate trade provides us the highest possible reward for the least amount of relative risk.

The technical indicator used simply gives us another clue to the multi-dimensional relationship between the buyers and sellers over a given period of time. With this in mind, we may opt to use a common technical indicator known as "Pivot Points". These horizontal lines are simply a formula calculating the previous days high, low, and closing price, which are plotted as 3-support and resistance levels typically found on daily, weekly, or monthly charts.

These lines, like any technical indicator simply provide us with a suspect price level at which the market 'may' establish its next support or resistance level. As the market subsequently tests one of these price levels, we should now employ another technical indicator in order to determine if the market has in fact found new support or resistance. For example, the following (1-hour) chart shows the current position of the EURUSD. We can see the market established a double bottom pattern very close to the 1st Weekly Support Pivot Point. As this occurred the MACD began to trend back to the upside indicating a level of divergence in the trend. Traders noting this relationship may have decided to go long or buy the market at this point as the potential reward far exceeded the risk in the trade.

The market subsequently rallied and failed to break above the 1st weekly resistance Pivot Point standing just below the 1.2800 large round figure. As this occurred, the MACD began to travel back to the downside again indicating a level of divergence. Traders once again may choose to anticipate this current range to continue, placing their faith in Pivot Points and MACD Divergence. There is no way to know ahead of time with certainty if the market will in fact act as we believe it may. However through the use of Pivot Points and other technical indicators, our probabilities of success grow in our favor, and will surely help us in the long-run. Best of luck!!!